Since 29th March 1944 the main crater has emitted little more than wisps of steam and a new generation of people now live in the surrounding area – a generation who have never known Vesuvius as an “active” volcano.For a number of centuries the eruption cycle of Vesuvius had been roughly 20 years and with 64 years since the last one it’s clear that an eruption is long “overdue.”So just how dangerous a volcano is Vesuvius?With a history of large and violent eruptions it has to be imagined that any eruption has the potential to have a devastating effect on the surrounding area.Add to this the fact that the area around the volcano is one of the most densely populated places in the world and there is a real chance that a large eruption could cause thousands of fatalities.The evidence of what Vesuvius is capable of is brought hauntingly to life in the ruins of Pompeii and Herculaneum and yet nearly 3 million people still live in its shadow.The question of whether Vesuvius will erupt again can be answered with a simple yes. The question that really needs answering is just how long Vesuvius is going to remain quiescent.Has the volcano simply paused for an intake of breath before resuming the eruption cycle of the last three centuries or are the residents of the Gulf of Naples in for a much longer wait.
Nobody is sure, perhaps millennia may pass before Vesuvius awakes. All that history has told us is that the longer the pause between eruptions, then the larger the eruption when activity resumes.
64 years is now the longest pause in activity for hundreds of years, it is to be expected that the next eruption will be far more significant than that of 1944.
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